Pero más allá de la mirada larga, las elecciones del 26 de junio nos proporcionan también otras señales que no deberíamos ignorar. Por una parte, el PP no sólo sigue ganando elecciones sinó que incrementa el nivel de voto en relación al 20D. Por otra parte, las expectativas de Unidos Podemos y las confluencias no sólo no se cumplen, sinó que se dejan un millón de votos por el camino en sólo 6 meses. No se trata ahora de proponer posibles explicaciones, peró sí aportar algunas reflexiones a partir de los resultados; dos en concreto. Y una consideración final.

En primer lugar, el resultado del 26J da por superada la tesis de la ventana de oportunidad histórica para intentar “tomar el cielo por asalto”, a partir de una lógica de tsunami político-electoral. El régimen bipartidista sale tocado, en plena crisis, pero no hay colapso. Los 71 escaños de las fuerzas del cambio son un hito y pueden dar para mucho, pero tendrán que desplegar su potencial en un esquema de tiempos políticos ralentizados: construyendo una dinámica más cercana a la “lluvia fina” que al “tsunami”, tejiendo complicidades sociales, y trabajando en el marco institucional sin perder los elementos culturales de la nueva política. En segundo lugar, el resultado del 26J nos enseña que en el terreno de las emociones,  las fuerzas de la vieja política tienen también recursos importantes que les permiten jugar y ganar. El recurso emocional al miedo ha ganado a la sonrisa, a la esperanza. El miedo al cambio, a sus incertidumbres, se ha impuesto al malestar que genera la corrupción. Unidos Podemos y las confluencias no plantearon una campaña en el campo programático, de los contenidos, de las alternativas de política pública. Pensaron que quizás ese era un tablero demasiado complicado. Tal vez lo era. Y tal vez la opción por disputar la batalla en la política emocional, en la política del relato como estrategia fuese acertada. En todo caso no ha sido ganadora. Y por tanto los 71 escaños –y las dinámicas de articulación social que antes mencionaba- deberan tejer también un terreno de política sustantiva: ganar credibilidad y apoyo como alternativa creible de gobierno, de transformación concreta de las condiciones de vida materiales de la gente, de superación viable de injusticias inmorales y corrupciones indecentes.

Finalmente, la red de ciudades por el cambio, el nuevo municipalismo, deberá seguir demostrando que la transformación  cotidiana de las ciudades es posible, y tendrá que fortalecer su dimensión simbólica, de punta de lanza de lo nuevo, de la ética y la humanidad como gramática de la política. Pero se enfrentará a un poder estatal hostil. Y eso plantea también límites. Plantea obstáculos de fondo a las estrategias del cambio. Los gobiernos locales deberán ser conscientes de todo ello: del juego de potencialidades y dificultades; de la necesidad de fortalecer complicidades ciudadanas para hacer frente a hostilidades estatales; de lo imprescindible de seguir reconstruyendo derechos básicos y esperanzas de futuro.

The Spanish general elections of the 26th June (26 J) ended a cycle that began just over two years ago. The European elections of May 2014 heralded the political expression of a new era, which has now settled . The social movement that began in Spain on the 15thMarch 2011 (15M – also known as the “indignados”) forged a new dynamic that questioned establishment politics, its corruption and unjust ‘austericide’.  From where I am writing, in Catalonia, this converged with the mass mobilization in favour of the right for self-determination. But the movement moved beyond the area of such reactive forms of civic protest. The 2014 European elections marked the emergence of Podemos as a device that channelled the demands and the political culture, in the broadest sense, of 15M into our formal democratic institutions. The municipal elections of the 24th May 2015 marked another major breakthrough. In those elections, the alliance between social movements, civic platforms and political parties in favour of change broke through to gain governing majorities in Spain’s major cities – including Madrid and Barcelona. This was an unprecedented victory for transformative forces. For example, in Catalonia, Ada Colau, a prominent leader of the anti-eviction movement becomes mayor of the Capital, Barcelona, shortly followed by the formation of a nationalist majority in the regional parliament.

Following these developments, delivering the end of bipartisanship in Spain stood out at the next challenge for the new political forces. They delivered on this. The general election of the 20th December (20D) and (following the political stalemate and inability to form a government) its re-run on 26J, made bipartisanship history in Spain. It is notable that this has not occurred – as in the case of many other European Countries – because of the emergence of a xenophobic right wing populism. It is because the political vehicle for change, “Unidos Podemos” with regional confluences in Catalonia, Valencia, Baleares and Galicia, has achieved more than 5 million votes and 71 parliamentary representatives, almost on a par with the Socialist Party – something that was unthinkable only two years ago. The change of scenery is remarkable because it signifies a transition from the social to the political, from the fragmented to the convergent, and because of its progressive orientation, calling for more democracy and a more open society, as a strategy for renewal and response to the crisis. It is perhaps un unparalleled development, that may also still be full of fruit to bear.

However, the results of the 26J point to more immediate concerns which we should not ignore. On the one hand, the “Partido Popular” (PP – the Spanish conservatives that have governed since 2011, despite the direct implication of prominent local and national actors in major corruption scandals that have unravelled during this time), not only keeps winning elections, but has increased its share of the vote since 20D. Moreover, the expectations of Unidos Podemos and the regional confluences to surpass the PSOE were not met, and 1 million votes were lost between 20D and 26J. I will not try here to develop explanations, but will offer two reflections on the significance of the result, and one final thought.

First, the electoral result of 26J has negated the possibility to “take heaven by assault” (i.e. “tomar el cielo por as alto”) – a popular argument that identified a historic window of opportunity to take over political power through a political and electoral tsunami. Spanish bipartisanship remains in crisis, but it has not collapsed. Achieving 71 parliamentary seats is an important milestone, but they will have to deliver their potential within a steadier and decelerated political timeframe, that has more in common with a “drizzle” than a “tsunami”. It will have to weave complex social solidarities, and work within the existing institutional framework without losing the political culture that engendered it.

Second, 26J teaches us that the old political forces also have significant resources to draw on in the realm of emotional politics. At the end of the day, their appeal to fear beat the politics of hope. Fear of change and its uncertainties trumped the discomfort generated by corruption. ‘Unidos Podemos’ and its allies did not make substantive public policy alternatives the central focus of their campaign – perhaps because they thought this terrain was too complicated. And it might have been – the decision to base the campaign on the politics of emotions might have been the correct one, although it did not deliver victory. As such, the 71 seats and the aforementioned dynamics of social alliance building, should also develop substantive policy policy agenda. In this way, credibility can be established, and support won, as a viable alternative government that can deliver a concrete transformation in people’s lives, and overcome the immorality of injustice and the indecency of corruption.

Finally, the “new municipalism” made up of a network of cities for change, must continue to demonstrate that the transformation of everyday life in cities is possible. It will also have to strengthen its symbolic dimension as a spearhead of the yet to come – of ethics and humanity as the new grammar of politics. But it will face a hostile state that implies limits, and contextual obstacles to strategies for change.  Local governments should be aware of all this: of  the game of difficulties and potentialities; the need to establish popular support to confront state hostility; and to do what is necessary continue rebuilding basic rights and hopes for the future.